This presentation examines the dynamics of COVID-19 and the factors which affect outcomes within a population. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered compartmental model was developed to represent the various disease-states of a population. Euler’s Method was used to find approximate solutions of the first-order differential equations governing the compartmental model. The model was applied to a population approximately the size of Louisville, KY in order to simulate a possible outcome of events for the largest metropolitan area in the state. Three scenarios were addressed using the developed model: one resembling the historical course of the outbreak, one in which a mask mandate was applied early in the course of the outbreak but individuals still chose to gather during the holiday season, and one in which a mask mandate was applied early in the course of the outbreak but individual refrained from gathering. Outcomes suggest that significant morbidity and mortality is expected except when masking is applied early on in the outbreak and individuals refrained from gathering during holidays.
LaBreche, Elizabeth and O'Brien, Timothy, "Developing A Simplistic Model Of Covid 19" (2021). 2021 Celebration of Student Scholarship - Oral Presentations. 3.